Weaponized Interdependence in a G-Zero World

In an increasingly dangerous and complex "G-Zero" world, where no single sovereign state or stable coalition can reliably supply global leadership, countries are turning to weaponized interdependence as the modus operandi of statecraft. The cross border networks that once underwrote cost-minimizing integration across supply chains, finance, and data exchanges now function as instruments through which states can impose disruption, deny access, or extract information.

This Capstone project, undertaken in partnership with the Eurasia Group, developed a qualitative and quantitative framework for identifying the most consequential geoeconomic vulnerabilities across three bilateral dyads: 1) the United States and China, 2) the United States and the European Union, and 3) the European Union and China.

Drawing on Keohane and Nye's foundational distinction between "sensitivity" and "structural vulnerability," and Farrell and Newman's theory of "weaponized interdependence," the project operationalized a three-layer classification framework across trade, finance, and technology. First, the report applied a criticality filter tied to national defense, national wealth, and national health then performed a three-condition vulnerability test (economic importance, low substitutability, and prohibitive time constraints) that separated sensitivities from structural vulnerabilities; and finally, visualized these vulnerabilities via a heat map.

Most importantly, the final deliverable was a ranked inventory of critical vulnerabilities, from SWIFT and dollar clearing to ASML lithography, rare earth processing, and pharmaceutical APIs, translated into actionable recommendations for Eurasia Group on how governments and firms can navigate, mitigate, or exploit the chokepoints that now define multipolar economic competition.