The Rise of Geopolitical Pivot States

The Eurasia Group has partnered with Columbia SIPA Capstone team to conduct a comparative analysis to determine the relationship of pivot states with the U.S. and China competition. First, drawing on desk research on the foreign policies of India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and South Africa, the team used a set of metrics to gauge the alignment of these four countries with either the U.S. and China. Focusing on four sectors — security, economics, technology and common global challenges — the team traced the shifts in these four states’ policies in extracting benefits and concessions from great powers and determined the level of alignments these states have with the U.S. and China within the 2008-2023 period. The key takeaways from this exercise were: (i) the U.S. remains a security partner for pivot states; (ii) China is a key economic and technology partner with 3 pivot states: Saudi Arabia, Brazil and South Africa, while the U.S. continues its strong economic relations with India; and (iii) common global challenges is a sector in which pivot states maintain an equidistance between Washington and Beijing. Second, working under the assumption of managed decline in the U.S.-China relations in the next 5-7 years, the team forecasted possible alignment of the pivot states. The analysis found that pivot states will likely gravitate closer towards the U.S. and China as poles. Lastly, the report concluded with subsequent policy recommendations for pivot states, the U.S. and China.