Conflict Prevention & Response Playbooks

The cornerstone of American defense strategy is deterrence, signaling to adversaries that the costs of aggression are incommensurate with conceivable benefits. American deterrence extends beyond the defense of its homeland, utilizing its military, economic, and diplomatic power to deter aggression against its allies and partners. The enduring importance of deterrence has been underscored by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the lingering threat of invasion across the Taiwan Strait while recent changes in technology, finance, and warfare have transformed and expanded available deterrence tools. 

The U.S. Department of State commissioned SIPA students to develop a playbook identifying actions taken by third-party states to deter the escalation of hostilities by larger, powerful states against smaller, weaker states. The team has developed a series of vignettes that identify past examples of both successful and unsuccessful deterrence. 

The playbook consists of three parts: a strategic framework for the consideration of deterrence actions, a catalog of deterrence tools, and a comparative analysis of deterrence case studies. This analysis will help decision-makers contextualize deterrence tools and evaluate their use through nuanced lenses based on risk, US interest, historical context, and more. 

The playbook is designed to assist the Department of State in quickly considering a range of deterrence options in crisis situations. The case studies included in the playbook have been selected based on their relevance to territorial disputes and other factors such as the size and strength of the states involved, the availability of information, and the clarity of the outcomes of the crisis.