What Do Shifting Coalitions Among Liberal Democracies Mean for International Agreements on Cybersecurity?

The topic of artificial intelligence has become increasingly important to the global economic and policy conversation. The United States and China are currently investing immense amounts of time and resources into the study of artificial intelligence and its applications. France, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and India have all recently introduced national artificial intelligence strategies, and other nation-states are moving in this direction. The introduction of these technologies affects the realms of surveillance, cybersecurity, and disinformation, impacting international strategic stability. There are currently no international agreements about the development or use of AI.

The Capstone team examined how the nation-states, companies, and non-governmental organizations involved in the discussion currently understand artificial intelligence. With this background, the team predicted the following potential scenarios, and crafted policy recommendation for Microsoft in each case:

• EU-led ‘digital alliance of willing democracies’
• A new international cyber-security board
• Private-sector led
• Swing state led
• Digital authoritarianism

The team’s recommendations for further research included an increased focus on finding information from underrepresented states; a focus on researching dual use technology standards and the applicability for AI regulation, and researching how to expand liberal norms to include swing states. The impact of this research will influence Microsoft’s outreach strategies and their continued attempts at norm development internationally.