U.S. Provincial Diplomatic and Reconstruction Team - Kirkuk, Iraq: Establishing a Negotiating Framework for Resolving Kirkuk’s Status

The Capstone team was tasked by the Department of State to recommend a framework for resolving the disputed status of the Iraqi province of Kirkuk. The volatile situation in Kirkuk is bent along ethnic lines: Kirkuk’s population is divided among Kurds who believe the province should join the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and Arabs and Turkmen who believe the Government of Iraq (GOI) should remain sovereign. Previous Iraqi-led attempts to resolve Kirkuk’s status have failed. The U.S. and international community believes that a political crisis and ethnic violence will result if either an ethnic-based census is held or Kirkuk is removed from GOI control. Therefore, the most politically feasible and safest way forward is to hold a confirmatory referendum in which Kirkuk votes on a framework for joint-administration between the KRG and GOI and equal power-sharing among ethnic parties, thus nullifying the relevance of demographic dominance.

Building on the recommendations of the U.S. Department of State, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), and international experts, the final paper recommends a confirmatory referendum on a politically negotiated settlement as the best option for resolving Kirkuk’s status.