Upstream Emissions of Coal and Gas - Spring

Team Members: Danny Scull, Sara Kaddoura, Kai Chen, Nina Gyourgis, Yuan Liu, Savannah Gentry Miller, Neha Vaingankar, Iara Vicente, Emily Yan

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with fossil fuels extend far beyond combustion, with substantial impacts arising during extraction, processing, and transport. This analysis consolidated scientific literature and emissions data to quantify upstream greenhouse gas emissions for coal and natural gas, focusing particularly on methane leakage and regional supply chain differences. Methane’s significantly higher warming potential—up to 86 times that of carbon dioxide over 20 years—emerged as a critical driver of lifecycle emissions, particularly in natural gas systems. The research revealed substantial variability in upstream emissions across regions due to differences in infrastructure, extraction methods, and leak detection practices, highlighting the limitations of using generalized national averages. These variations can significantly alter conclusions about the relative climate impacts of fuel choices and complicate efforts to accurately assess energy transition pathways.

The findings demonstrate that although natural gas has lower combustion emissions than coal, its total climate impact depends heavily on methane leakage rates and operational practices. The study developed a standardized methodology to estimate emissions per unit of electricity generated, improving consistency across research and enabling more accurate comparisons. Results showed natural gas combined-cycle plants produce approximately 597 kg CO₂e/MWh, compared to 1,086 kg CO₂e/MWh for coal, though high leakage scenarios narrow this gap considerably. To improve emissions accounting and policy decision-making, the research recommended adopting standardized lifecycle assessment methods, improving methane monitoring through satellite informing and leak detection technologies, and incorporating regional-specific data into national emissions inventories. These improvements would enhance transparency and ensure energy transition policies reflect the true climate impacts of fossil fuel use.

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