Resisting the Russians: What are the Strategic Options NATO can Pursue in Response to Russia’s Coercion of its Neighbors?

Client

RAND Corporation

Advisor

Semester

Spring 2015

Final Report

View Final Report (PDF)

This Capstone report proposed actions that NATO can undertake to strengthen resilience among states in Scandinavia and Eastern and Central Europe to potential use of hybrid warfare tactics by Russia. Recent Russian military action in Ukraine since early 2014 has generated major concerns within the NATO community. By analyzing Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy and the vulnerabilities of key case study countries, this report presented strategic options NATO can pursue to strengthen periphery states’ resilience to Russian coercion, thereby increasing regional stability and ensuring U.S. and NATO security interests.

The report discussed six case study countries, grouped in pairs:

  • Estonia and Latvia: vulnerable NATO member states;
  • Sweden and Finland: non-NATO, highly integrated partner states;
  • Georgia and Moldova: non-NATO states with legacies of frozen conflicts. 

The report proceeded based on a model of Russian strategy that reflects the above research and observation. This model includes the following assumptions: Russia does not seek large-scale military conflict with NATO; Russia seeks opportunities to destabilize and delegitimize NATO; Russia aims to preserve and/or extend influence in its near-abroad.

The Capstone team found that Russian hybrid warfare tactics seek to undermine states’ military, government, and societal functioning, so they proposed whole-of-society strategies for NATO to counter Russian coercion. The research provided actionable recommendations for implementing NATO and U.S. strategy. The whole-of-society approach taken by this report looked ahead to potential future crises in the region, providing policy solutions for NATO and the U.S. to address the varied and evolving threats posed by aggressive Russian foreign policy.