NATO Deterrence Posture After the Warsaw Summit

Russia’s continuing aggression presents an unequivocal challenge to European and global security. Vladimir Putin has attempted to rebuild Russian power and expand Moscow’s sphere of influence. Not since the end of the Cold War has the vision of a stable, secure, and economically healthy Europe been at risk. While NATO Member States have responded with some deterrence measures, a comprehensive strategy to reign in Russian aggression and bring Moscow back into compliance with international norms has not been agreed to. This report aimed to provide policymakers and strategists with a multitude of flexible options to end Russian provocations.

This Capstone report provided symmetrical responses that manage escalation and mute Russia’s second strike retaliation abilities. Additionally, the Capstone team suggested options that raise the cost of military adventurism for Russia, forcing Moscow to see further provocation as against its best interests. They provided three strategies with multiple courses of action that can be used singularly or as a package. The strategies were broken down into four policy areas – nuclear, cyber, space, and pre-nuclear – where NATO could expand its deterrence capabilities against Russia. Each policy area was further broken down into “software” and “hardware” actions. “Software” is defined as revisions in declared policy statements, doctrine, and pledges. “Hardware,” on the other hand, is defined as concrete military focused actions – such as stationing ground troops – that demonstrate NATO’s resolve. The recommendations were then categorized as “bold” or “moderate” to fit any number of actions NATO may take.

Key recommendations for NATO from the report were:

• Update declaratory policy in the nuclear, space, cyber, and, missile defense realms;
• Reintegrate France into NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group;
• Modernize the alliance’s training and response measures;
• Create a National Training Center in the Baltics;
• Invest highly in cyber, space, and missile defense technologies.