Forecasting the Future of Internet Governance

This Capstone report developed a scalable framework for assessing the global digital governance landscape after the adoption of the 2024 Global Digital Compact. Prepared for the World Economic Forum’s Centre for AI Excellence, it benchmarked nineteen public, regional, and private-sector stakeholders against the Compact’s five pillars, with a focused analysis of Pillar 5: governing emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence.

The report argued that AI has intensified existing governance challenges by accelerating digital divides, concentrating technical capability among a small number of firms and states, and exposing gaps between policy commitments and operational capacity. To evaluate these dynamics, the framework distinguished between two dimensions: alignment, defined as the extent to which stakeholders’ strategies, institutions, and accountability mechanisms correspond to Global Digital Compact objectives; and capability, defined as their resources, partnerships, infrastructure, funding, and resilience to act on those commitments. Stakeholders were then mapped through a matrix that identified leaders, challengers, niche players, and visionaries.

The findings showed that capability and alignment often move together, meaning that the actors most able to govern AI are frequently the same actors already shaping its deployment. However, even leading stakeholders exhibit persistent gaps in validation, enforcement, and transparent accountability.

The report concluded that the World Economic Forum could add value by convening high-capability and lower-capability actors, strengthening disclosure through a Global Digital Compact Data Transparency Index or related observatory partnerships, and expanding future stakeholder analysis across the AI value chain. In doing so, the Forum could help translate broad digital governance commitments into actionable, measurable, and globally inclusive policy outcomes.