Evaluating Success in Tackling Transnational Organized Crime Overseas

This report focused on a particular challenge for actors involved in countering transnational organized crime (TOC): how should we measure success? Specifically, how do we move beyond traditional measures such as seizures of illicit goods and arrests, which have consistently been deemed inadequate by practitioners and analysts alike, and determine the indicators that best serve to measure progress against the threat posed by transnational organized crime?

In answer, this report’s central recommendation is as follows: focusing evaluations primarily upon the impact on TOC networks or criminal markets is an incomplete approach to evaluation that may produce misleading or fleeting results and can even encourage actions that increase the negative effects of TOC. While understanding TOC networks is vital, this report proposed that evaluations of success should be structured primarily around: 1) the reversal and prevention of the negative effects of TOC; and 2), the reversal and prevention of the vulnerabilities that give rise to TOC. In this report’s estimation, an evaluation system based on these two pillars would encourage more sustainable approaches to countering TOC, better avoid misleading evaluations of success, and ensure greater cohesion between agencies and departments pursuing different UK government policy priorities related to TOC.