Analysis and Assessment of Iceland’s Climate Action Plan for 2040 - Spring

Advisor: Eileen McGinnis

Team Members: Isabelle Branco-Lo, Laura Thornton, Charlotte Doyle, Erin Dickinson, Kelly Rose Nunziata, Zachary Byrum, Milo Mcbride, Urko Diez Webster, Corissa Steiner, Chelsea Vargas, Sophie Capshaw-Mack

Iceland’s Climate Action Plan, launched in 2018, establishes ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality by 2040. The analysis finds that while Iceland’s long-term neutrality goal is achievable, its nearer-term 2030 targets face significant implementation challenges, particularly due to coordination gaps, insufficient data, and uneven resource allocation. Land-use sectors—especially afforestation, reforestation, and wetland restoration—emerge as the most promising mitigation opportunities, with strong potential to sequester carbon and offset emissions. However, major uncertainties remain regarding sequestration capacity due to incomplete national inventories, highlighting the need for improved monitoring, mapping, and ecosystem carbon accounting. Transportation also presents a critical mitigation pathway, though success will depend on accelerating electric vehicle adoption and expanding charging and public transit infrastructure.

The findings emphasize that institutional coordination and long-term planning will determine whether climate targets can be achieved. Strengthening collaboration across government agencies, improving stakeholder alignment, and addressing knowledge gaps are essential for unlocking mitigation potential in land use and transportation sectors. Economic disruptions, including those related to tourism declines, present both risks and opportunities, creating space for investments in green infrastructure and employment. Policy recommendations focus on prioritizing investments in ecosystem restoration, expanding climate data collection, and accelerating infrastructure deployment. These strategies would enable Iceland not only to meet its emissions targets but also to strengthen economic resilience while transitioning toward a low-carbon, ecosystem-based development model. 

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