Event Highlight

Veteran Diplomat Warns of World Entering an ‘Age of Divorce’

By Giulia Campos MIA ’24
Posted Apr 19 2023
João Vale de Almeida 2023 ball lecture
photo: Barbara Alper

 

The veteran European diplomat João Vale de Almeida delivered SIPA’s annual Ball Lecture on April 11, discussing the serious global risks of economic and technological “decoupling” and warning that the world order could enter what he described as “an age of divorce.”

Vale de Almeida, who is currently the George W. Ball Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs, served as the European Union’s ambassador to the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2022. Before that he had been EU ambassador to both the United Nations (2015–2019) and to the United States (2010–2014).

He opened by addressing his working hypothesis around the divorce of nations. 

“My concern is that the escalation of the current climate would be enough to lead us into a period of fragmentation and non-cooperation — an age of divorce,” he said, “from which it will be increasingly difficult to extract ourselves without major repercussions for our peoples and our economies, and which could ultimately create the conditions for an open conflict.”

Vale de Almeida said the global community has entered a period of serious deterioration of its terms of engagement which could lead to deepened cleavages between different systems; disruption and potential rupture of global economic trade, financial flows and supply chains; as well as a collapse of multilateral institutions; and even outright great power confrontation. 

To prevent this decoupling, he called on the United States, China, the EU and Russia to pause, reflect, repair the damage already done, and jointly reassess the terms of engagement.

“Divorce at the international level can only exacerbate tensions, not release them,” Vale de Almeida said. “Let's keep Brexit in the back of our mind as an example not to be followed.”

The answer is not to kill globalization but to deal with the negative impacts that it had in some of our countries and avoid falling into the trap of protectionism. To achieve this, Almeida explained that the focus of industrial policy should be on preserving “the benefits of open trade, open markets, globalization, and addressing some of the downsides of it in our own systems.” 

He said countries should also agree to work together on shared priorities of humankind, including ensuring that countries deliver on their climate pledges, and addressing the issue of debt in developing countries as well as debt following the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“We cannot accept the present state of things,” Vale de Almeida said. “We cannot afford to sit idly watching some countries challenging our values, principles, and interests, but also challenging the values and principles they subscribe to. We cannot afford to allow the world to sleepwalk towards the cliff edge. And that's why inaction is not an option-- complacency is not an option.” 

Upon the conclusion of his remarks Vale de Almeida joined the journalist Rana Foroohar of the Financial Times and CNN in conversation. Among other things they talked about the changes wrought by globalization and the need for international institutions and practices to evolve in response to those changes. Vale de Almeida also fielded audience questions on topics including China’s responsibilities in the world and Europe’s support for Ukraine.