Professors Discuss Threat of ISIS to Iraq, Syria, and U.S.

When President Barack Obama addressed the nation, he labeled the Islamic State, or ISIS, as “terrorists unique in their brutality.” To eliminate this growing threat, the president also detailed his strategy to target ISIS. The various facets of the plan include targeted airstrikes, support and training of Iraqi and Syrian forces, counterterrorism efforts and the building of an international coalition.

In a panel moderated by Colin F. Jackson, a professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College, SIPA professors Austin Long and Stuart Gottlieb weighed in on the threat ISIS poses to Iraq, Syria, and the United States, and also discussed the potential success—or failure—of the President’s strategy. The panel was organized by the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies.

“Know your enemy, and then you will be able to fight,” emphasized Gottlieb, quoting Carl von Clausewitz. “I think we need a lot more of that.”

Understanding where ISIS comes from leads to understanding its strengths and weaknesses, said Long.

ISIS, originally Al Qaeda in Iraq, adapted and “out-organized” other terrorist groups due to a “Darwinian pressure” brought on by the 2003 Iraqi invasion, explained Long. By 2006, they became the dominant force of the insurgency, and their “appetite grew with the eating.”

Global jihadists movements are “inspired to act locally, think globally,” emphasized Gottlieb. This administration needs to stop downplaying the ideology purported by ISIS, he said, and openly view this as an “ideological challenge.”

This ideological challenge is based on a religious ideology—radical Islam—with anti-Western undertones. Not only has ISIS used this ideology to capitalize on the Sunni grievances towards the United States and the current Iraqi government, it also helps them recruit globally.

“One of the great challenges ISIS poses is they have territory the size of Belgium, they have the territory room, breeding space to train the large number of willing fighters,” said Gottlieb. They have quantity, and can have the quality.

In addition, ISIS has a considerable amount of money, obtained through hijackings, kidnappings and seizing areas of natural resources and refineries. ISIS is not dependent on outside benefactors – unlike Al Qaeda. A major way of stopping terrorism is tracking and freezing their finances. With ISIS, their money is not online – this makes counterterrorism measures difficult.

The president’s strategy relies largely on such counterterrorism efforts as finance tracking. Yet, this is not the only aspect of the strategy that faces potential problems.

The reliance on Iraqi forces is worrisome. They are riddled with corruption, politicization and incompetence, said Long. Similarly, the “Syrian moderate opposition” is politically fragmented and heavily “beaten up” by ISIS, he said. There is also much apprehension with regards to relying on the United States.

They are not the only weary ones. In the audience Q&A portion of the event demonstrated, many alluded to the difficulty President Obama will face with his proposed international coalition.

“Trying to build a big coalition is very sensible…but the more countries you draw in, the smaller and smaller the overlap of their interests is,” said Long. “Trying to bring all of these countries together, the challenge is not going to be on getting them to agree that they don’t like the Islamic State. It’s going to be getting them to agree on what should be done about it and if the Islamic State is destroyed what that new order that follows will look like.”

As for the United States, asked Jackson, the moderator, what end state are they looking for?

Since 2003, it has always been “a multi-professional, multi-ethnic government that treats everybody, if not nicely, at least moderately well, and has the ability to govern the entire country,” said Long. That much is clear. “It’s just not clear that the end state is anything more than a sort of unicorn.”

— Tamara El Waylly MIA ’15

Epert Panel discusses "Iraq, ISIS, Syria and the United States" SIPA