Experts Discuss Paris Climate Negotiations

“How you view the negotiation will depend on your perspective,” said Majid Al Suwaidi. “All countries have different needs and different responsibilities.”

Al Suwaidi, who is the lead climate change negotiator and consul general in New York for the United Arab Emirates, spoke at a November 16 panel discussion on the upcoming climate negotiations in Paris. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting, beginning November 30 in Paris, is the culmination of a four-year negotiating process and will set the stage for international climate change cooperation for many years to come.

Al Suwaidi spoke alongside Michael Gerrard, who is the Andrew Sabin Professor of Professional Practice at Columbia Law School and faculty director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Selwin Hart, who is the director of the United Nations Secretary-General's climate change support team, as well as Rueanna Haynes, the first secretary to the permanent mission of Trinidad and Tobago to the United Nations in New York and the climate change negotiator for Trinidad and Tobago, CARICOM (Caribbean Community and Common Market), and the Alliance of Small Island States.

Panelists discussed the obstacles to achieving a successful agreement in Paris, what the prospects are for an agreement, and how such an agreement might impact climate policy in countries around the world. The panel discussion was hosted by the Center on Global Energy Policy and moderated by Keith Benes, a fellow at the Center.

“We have seen positive progress and bilateral agreements are setting the stage but we are still not on a path to two degrees Celsius,” said Benes. “What are the remaining issues?”

“In these negotiations, there is a difference between substance and form,” said Haynes.

Offering a legal analysis, Haynes explained that the negotiations are not only about the content of the agreements but also equally about their legal form. To date, there has been no fully legally binding multinational agreement resulting from these meetings, which means they serve more as a mission and vision for global emissions target as opposed to a legal obligation.

“In the U.S., the agreement would need to pass two thirds of the votes from the Senate in order to pass,” said Gerrard.

While most countries favor a legally binding document, the opposition coming from big players such as the United States, China, and India impede on the opportunity for multilateral cooperation.

“Based on the current composition of the U.S. House and Senate, it is impossible to expect a single legally binding document,” Gerrard said.

“Differentiation is key for us,” said Al Suwaidi.

As a small and young country, he said, the UAE accounts for just 1 percent of total global emissions and will be deeply affected by the effects of climate change. The UAE is also an oil-producing country that is reliant on desalination for drinking water.

“Our sustainability concerns are different than others and we are doing our part,” Al Suwaidi said. “We can’t have a legally binding agreement since we all have different needs.”

“The notion that there is a trade-off between the level of ambition and participation in the discussion is a false dichotomy,” said Haynes, who said Small islands are at high risk to climate change, and the need to attain a temperature goal below two degrees Celsius is crucial to their survival. “Long-term temperature goal is most important to us. But there is no way of tracking everyone’s reporting so there is no accountability and the agreement is by nature null.”

“Does it even matter? There are no sanctions for violation of the agreements,” said Gerrard.

Gerrard noted that Canada was a signatory to the Kyoto protocol—a product of previous climate negotiations intended to be legally binding, at least in part—but went way above its emissions target and ended up leaving the Kyoto protocol without sanction.

“It comes down to domestic politics to take on the responsibility to address the goals in these agreements,” he underscored.

“It is important to take a step back and see how far we’ve come since the 2006 Copenhagen negotiations,” said Hart.

In preparation of the Paris negotiations, countries can individually submit non-binding emissions target for their development. These INDCs, or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, are a means for countries to individually state their ambitions and determination to decreasing carbon emissions.

“Based on the aggregate of the INDCs, we will reach 95 percent of our emissions reduction target by 2020. There is strong political will to finalize an ambitious agreement,” Hart said.

Still, differences in needs and responsibilities will prevail. As Hart stated: “The devil will be in the details.”

— Rebecca Krisel MIA ’16