After Terrorist Attack in Paris, What Next?

After the recent Paris attacks, SIPA held a panel to discuss the rise of ISIS and what these attacks mean for world leaders going forward. Taking part were four members of the SIPA faculty: Stuart Gottlieb, Austin Long, Dipali Mukhopadhyay, and Jason Healey.

Stuart Gottlieb, Adjunct Professor of International Affairs and Public Policy at SIPA, started the discussion by noting that faculty members would offer different and sometimes conflicting views on the issue. For his own part, he focused on what he called the United States’ “degrade and destroy” policy, which he said is not working thus far.

“Inside those contained areas, ISIS was gaining in numbers,” said Gottlieb, pointing out that thousands have left their home countries to join ISIS.

What is most concerning about the Paris attacks is that they “were not small-scale attacks planned over the Internet, but sophisticated and deadly attacks,” said Gottlieb.

“We must assume that they are planning more and bigger attacks,” he warned.

Austin Long, an assistant professor at SIPA, former advisor to the U.S. military, and associate political scientist for the RAND Corporation, looked specifically at the current military operations and their options.

“From the current military perspective, the situation is slightly better,” Long said, suggesting that ISIS is contained geographically but will likely continue to perpetrate terrorist attacks outside of their borders.

Long said his greatest concern was what would happen to the reclaimed territory should ISIS be defeated. If it will be the responsibility of the United States, “then we need to be prepared to send Americans for an indefinite period of times,” he said—adding that “indefinite” does not mean a few presidential terms, but decades.

If the United States is not committed to stabilizing the area and maintaining long-term presence, Long cautioned that “It’s going to be déjà vu. As soon as we leave, things will fall apart.”

With so many national powers and relationships at play, Long said the situation “could spiral out of control.”

“I don’t think I’m exaggerating,” Long said, noting that the use of nuclear weapons is a real concern.

Mukhopadhyay, an assistant professor at SIPA who has done extensive research in Afghanistan and on the Syria-Turkey border, looked at ISIS with the record of Afghanistan in mind.

“What is our track record of promoting good governance in the Middle East? We’re not effective at figuring out how to translate good governance to institutions that deliver good governance,” Mukhopadhyay said.

Her skepticism of the responses to ISIS thus far also came through when she asked, “Can one defeat an ideology through force?”

Mukhopadhyay observed that some may ask, “What’s the harm of trying?”

One answer, she said is moral hazard: “It emboldens rebels on the ground… to make choices and engage in behavior that introduces risks for them because they believe outsiders are going to come and help them.”

Jason Healey, a senior research scholar at SIPA who is an expert on cybersecurity, focused on the threat of cyber-terrorism by ISIS. He said many expressed concerns about strengthening Internet surveillance and cyber-security after the attacks in Paris

While clamping down on the Internet is not necessarily the appropriate response, Healey said, it is important for governments to address new strategies to respond to these issues of security.

“It doesn’t look like the Paris attackers use encryption, but will in the future,” he said.

Healey also noted that the United States and other western governments have a lot to lose by preventing encryption and removing Internet content. He said the process is not very effective (because it’s easy to create a new website or social media account after another is taken down) and risks intelligence that would otherwise be gained from websites (e.g., if you take down the recruiting site, then you don’t know who is being recruited).

There are also concerns around free speech, security, and privacy rights, he added.

Healey also suggested that when governments prohibit the use of encryption, it puts everyone at risk of identity theft and hacking.

“It’s going to hurt all of us who shop or bank online,” he said.

 — Kristen Grennan MPA '16

SIPA panel discusses the rise of ISIS after recent Paris attacks