Developing Energy Emissions Projections for the US and Europe
Semester
For this project, the Capstone client tasked the student team to develop possible energy trajectories for the EU, U.S., and China that could be tested using the EDP 2050 Simulator. The Capstone team developed three scenarios to demonstrate a variety of possible outcomes. They developed a Green Scenario that was designed to prevent climate change from surpassing a 2° Celsius threshold, a Base Case designed to model the state of energy systems in 2050 if progress toward emissions reductions continues at the current pace, and a Brown Scenario, the most polluting scenario involving weak policy support for renewables. Based on these scenarios, 2050 simulations were then created for the EU, U.S., and China using the EDP 2050 Simulator. The simulation results were distributed among four categories, and key drivers within these categories were analyzed.
The simulator results revealed the following: Energy Balance results showed that renewables and natural gas were some of the key drivers for all regions. Emissions simulations revealed that emissions in all countries were sensitive to industrial energy intensity demand and the equipping of thermal power plants with CCS. For renewables, the greatest drivers were onshore and offshore wind and solar PV. Costs to realize the trajectory projected for the Green scenario will be the highest and lowest for the Brown.
Based on these results, the Capstone team came up with policy recommendations that could influence progress of key CO2 legislation, energy efficiency, and incentivize technological innovation.