Assessment of Future Geopolitical and Security Trends in the Central Asia-Caspian Region

A seminal event took place in the international trade of natural gas in 2009. China completed a 1,139–mile long pipeline stretching from eastern Turkmenistan, across Central Asia, finally connecting Turkmenistan's reserves with China's domestic natural gas pipeline (the Second West–East gas pipeline) in Xinjiang. While the length of the pipeline and speed of construction are impressive, what makes this pipeline most noteworthy is the fact that this is the first major international pipeline to bypass the Russian natural gas network. This distribution innovation will have long–term consequences for both the future economics of the trade in natural gas and the international relations between the many countries it involves.

The final report examines the economic rationale behind the Chinese decision to build the pipeline and attempts to explain the strategic decision by the Turkmen government to partner with China and invite the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to be the only foreign company drilling on its soil. The team considers the implications of the growing Turkmen–China relationship for U.S. regional foreign policy objectives.