This Capstone project analyzes the linkages between climate change and conflict. The geographic scope centers on two regions of Ethiopia, Gambella and Tigray, which are exposed to similar climate hazards but impacted completely differently due to region-specific sociopolitical drivers of conflict. The subnational, national and transnational analysis includes concrete and actionable policy recommendations for practitioners interested in incorporating a climate lens to conflict analysis and conflict prevention strategies.

This analysis applies the frameworks from the IPCC WGII AR5 Report and the Weathering Risk Methodology Report to pursue three core objectives: i) examine climate change hazard, exposure, vulnerability, impact, risk, and adaptation in the two regions identified, ii) analyze the socio-political drivers of conflict in this geography, and iii) identify short-term and long-term pathways through which climate change exacerbates conflict in this geography. Research was conducted through a comprehensive literature review of available climate data and climate projections in Ethiopia, of socioeconomic and political drivers of conflict, and of the pathways linking climate impacts to conflict. This literature review was supplemented with consultations with climate and conflict experts in the field. From this analysis, the report proposes a number of stakeholder-specific policy recommendations that will increase resilience to climate change and mitigate the exacerbating impacts of climate on conflict.