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Midterm Elections: Q & A with Sharyn O'Halloran
One day after the November 2 midterm elections, Professor Sharyn O'Halloran met with a group of broadcast journalists from Germany. She answered questions about the Tea Party, President Obama’s agenda moving forward, and the 2012 presidential election.
See photos here. 
How will the Tea Party affect the Republican Party in the long term?
It's definitely a wing of the Republicans that can be easily consolidated into its agenda. What it’s doing is it’s pulling the Republicans to a more extreme position than they would normally be in.
But will it split up the Republican Party?
No more than the conservative religious right did, or when you had the extreme liberals of the Democratic party. They’re a wing, and they'll pull and that's natural, but there's no underlying organization independent of the Republicans that's sustainable.
Do you think the Tea Party can eventually become an established third party, as in Great Britain?
We've had third party movements throughout history, usually on a single issue they can dominate for a set period of time. Then you see it get absorbed into one of the main parties. That's what I anticipate will happen.
Will it be easier for Democrats in 2012 if they can say Republicans blocked everything?
It really depends on how the Republicans behave and what they are able to do in Congress, because their response was ‘thank God we we're there, because think of what Obama would have done otherwise.’ So it goes either way.
None of this will matter if we are back in growth and there's jobs creation. If in fact we are still in this stagnant growth or very slow jobs creation period, it will resonate very clearly that we have to get rid of the Democrats because they're the problem.
What will happen in the next two years legislatively?
You won't see much large legislation being passed during this period. The number of pieces of laws you see is pretty much the same under unified and divided government, but the scope and the nature and the amount of the authority that's delegated to agencies to promulgate rules and regulate markets and so on is much more circumscribed during divided government.
Which of Obama’s positions or decisions are now in danger?
The question is – do they repeal the health care? My sense is that it's going to be very hard to pass a new law that would repeal it. I'm sure Obama would veto it. I would doubt that they would be able to get a two-thirds override (a vote to override the veto).
My sense is they'll tweak and amend parts. I'm not sure they'll be able to do a large repeal.
Did voters have unreasonable expectations of Obama?
No, they had clear expectations that Obama should fix the economy. And you could argue that he walked into it. He passed a set of policies and he had the coalition. He had a full support of the House and the Senate, and he could have been much more aggressive in pursuing a set of policies that would have much more significant impact on the economy. He failed to do so. Consequently, it falls straight on him. I don't think after two years you can really argue too much else.
He chose to do a moderate stimulus package, heavy on the tax relief, which as we all know is the most inefficient way to stimulate the economy. If you give it to somebody, they only spend 40 cents on the dollar. They rest they save to pay down debt. What you want is for it to go dollar for dollar into the economy.
The rest of it went in fact to substitution of state (budgets). So they kept state employees – nurses and firemen and police officers – so they wouldn't get fired. That was all good, but it wasn't the large investment in the infrastructure, in the things that will increase our productivity in the medium to long term.
After the election, GOP Congressman John Boehner was in tears on TV and talking about the American Dream. Is that unusual?
Whatever works for him – that's the facetious answer. Do I think he's passionate about the American Dream? Yes. Does he always bring out the tears? No, but he should go with the moment and we'll see if it has any legs to it.
Should Obama concentrate on foreign affairs to improve his chances in 2012?
He spent a lot of time on foreign affairs, and it got absolutely no play in this election. It's completely domestic. All people know is Afghanistan – “We have to get out of there, wherever ‘there’ is. It's too expensive and people are dying and we're not going to win.” What matters is the economy. I think the polls will tell you that. The election results tell you that.
What can Obama do to get a better reputation?
The question is – can he move to the center like Clinton did and be productive. Clinton passed welfare reform, which was actually a very substantial piece of legislation that turned out to be very popular.
The question is can he put through effective job creation and a stimulus package. The Bush tax bill expires at the end of the year. If we can do nothing, everyone's taxes get raised substantially in a slow economic activity period. So that will look very bad for the Democrats and that will be a clear sign of Obama's failure, and partly because they will see he did have the opportunity in his first two years to be effective.
Will the Republicans be willing to work with him at all?
Absolutely not. They absolutely have their minds on 2012 — we're getting the guy out of there. That is their primary goal.
Who will be the candidate for the Republicans in 2012?
We have Newt making a lot of noise – Newt Gingerich. He's trying to be statesmanlike. I don't think John McCain will be able to run again. Mitt Romney.
Is Sarah Palin the best thing that could happen to Obama?
She is. I don't think she'll be able to get the party vote. She may wind up pulling whoever does become the candidate more to the extreme right and leaving the center to the Democrats if they can play it right. That may be how the Tea Party works against the Republican Party.
What are Obama's biggest failures?
His biggest failures are really on the timing issue. If he could have just focused his energies – laser-beam – on the economy and job creation, he would have been in a much better position to have these conversations about health care, financial regulation reform, even the climate control issues.
So if you want to ask ‘What's his biggest failure?’ it's not necessarily the individual items. It was that he didn't focus on the thing that's most important, and that was job creation and the economy.
What does this election mean for foreign policy?
I don't think the tone internationally will change. I think Hillary Clinton's done a very good job expressing a position, and I think she will continue. The focus is going to be on the domestic politics and getting the jobs and the economy moving again.
Do you think Obama had the wrong advisers?
I think he had an agenda and he took the line that we will come right out of this, like all the other recessions. But if I were to show you the charts, of all the post-war recessions, this one is deeper, and we usually bounce into a V. This one is flat. My sense is that they did misgauge the true depth of this recession.
Do you think the American people are going to vote Obama out of office?
It's up to him and his leadership ability at this point to be able to build broad-based coalitions that invest in the economy that can create jobs and move the economy forward.
Tim Shenk, 11/05/2010